POLL SHOCK: BERNIE TAKES LEAD!
A new national Emerson poll, including 20 Democratic candidates for President, found Senator Bernie Sanders ahead of the pack with 29%, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 24%. They were followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9%, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Senator Kamala Harris at 8%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren at 7%.
Entrepreneur Andrew Yang and former HUD secretary Julian Castro were at 3%. The poll was conducted April 11-14 of Democratic Primary voters with a subset of n=356, +/- 5.2%.
Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, said “while still early in the nominating process, it looks like Mayor Pete is the candidate capturing voters’ imagination; the numbers had him at 0% in mid-February, 3% in March and now at 9% in April.”
Kimball also noted that “Biden has seen his support drop. In February, he led Sanders 27% to 17%, and in March the two were tied at 26%. Now, Sanders has a 5 point lead, 29% to 24%.”
If Joe Biden decides not to run, Bernie Sanders looks to be the early beneficiary, picking up 31% of Bidens’ voters. Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets 17% of the Biden vote, followed by Beto O’Rourke at 13%.
President Trump has seen his approval numbers nationally stay consistent in 2019 and is currently at 43% approval and 49% disapproval among voters (n=914, +/-3.2%), similar to last month’s numbers (43% to 50%). However, among Republican primary voters, Trump remains very popular and leads potential challenger, former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld, 85% to 15% (n=324, +/-5.4%).
In a head to head ballot test, Joe Biden appears the strongest opponent against Trump of the major Democratic candidates with a 53% to 47% advantage. This result is down 4 points from Emerson’s March poll, where Biden led Trump 55% to 45%. This general tightening is seen in the other head-to heads against other potential opponents: (n=914, +/-3.2%)
- Biden 53%, Trump 47%
- Sanders 51%, Trump 48%
- O’Rourke 51%, Trump 49%
- Harris 50%, Trump 50%
- Buttigieg 49%, Trump 51%
- Warren 48%, Trump 52%
Taxes
As of April 14, 2019, 73% of voters said they had filed their federal income tax returns, 17% plan to get them in on time and 4% have asked for an extension. 6% do not plan on filing returns.
36% of those who have filed their taxes say they are paying more compared to last year, with 29% saying they are paying less, and 35% saying they are paying about the same.
Of those who said they were receiving a tax return this year, 41% said they plan to use it to pay off debt, 31% plan to save it, and 13% will spend the money on enjoyment.
Campaign Issues
- 47% of voters support building a wall on the US-Mexico Border, 45% oppose, 8% are undecided.
- 41% of voters do not think large tech giants like Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google should be broken up, 29% think they should be broken up, and 31% are undecided.
- 43% of voters do not support American intervention in Venezuela to overthrow the Maduro Regime, 27% do support American intervention, 31% were unsure.
- 55% of voters do not think individuals currently incarcerated should have the right to vote, 30% believe those incarcerated should be able to vote , and 15% are undecided on this issue.
- 65% of voters think that felons who completed their prison sentences should have the right to vote, 23% do not, and 12% are undecided.
Unlikely Voter
Voters who did not plan to vote in either party primary/caucus were asked why they were not planning on voting, 16% said lack of interest, 12% said they don’t like any of the candidates, 11% said it was too hard to vote, 6% said a lack of time, and 55% responded that it was for some other reason that they do not plan to vote in the primaries.
Caller ID
The national Emerson College poll was conducted April 11-14, 2019 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=914, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data was weighted based on a 2016 voter model of gender, age, party affiliation, region and ethnicity. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=599) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=315). Visit our website at www.emersonpolling.com.
Follow us on Twitter @EmersonPolling
Congressman and RussiaGate Conspiracy Theorist Running for President
Swalwell is known for his conspiracy theories and anti-Second Amendment rhetoric.
By
A U.S. Congressman from California who is known best for promulgating the leftist conspiracy theory that President Donald J. Trump “colluded” with the Russians to win the presidency has announced his own candidacy for the 2020 race.
“U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell said on Monday he would seek the Democratic nomination for president, joining a crowded field seeking to take on Republican Donald Trump in the 2020 election,” said a Reuters report.
The Democrat’s announcement will be made public on CBS’s “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” which will air late Monday night. Colbert is a known leftist political operative who masquerades as a comedian.
Swalwell is best known for his voluminous cable news appearances during which he conspiracy theorized about Trump being an asset of a hostile foreign power. Even after Attorney General William Barr released the findings of Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s lengthy investigation, which cleared Trump of collusion and obstruction of justice, Swalwell still called Trump a “traitor.”
He also had an internet dust up with Second Amendment supporters who claimed that they would never turn their guns over to the federal government, saying that such a demand would cause a civil war. In response, Swalwell suggested using nuclear weapons on American citizens.
“And it would be a short war my friend. The government has nukes. Too many of them. But they’re legit. I’m sure if we talked we could find common ground to protect our families and communities,” Swalwell said on Twitter.
He enters an already-crowded Democratic primary field, which includes Democratic Party Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.), Kamala Harris (Calif.), Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Failed U.S. Senate candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke has entered the race, as have former Obama administration official Julian Castro of Texas, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii), Mayors Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, and entrepreneur Andrew Yang.
Two heavy hitters, former Vice President Joe Biden and failed Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams are both considering entering the race.
VOTE FOR ME OR I WILL NUKE YOU
Eric Swalwell will reportedly announce next week that he is running for president in 2020 and will center his campaign around gun control.
‘Gravelanche’: Anti-war ex-Senator with teen campaign managers is making a splash in 2020 race
A new unlikely sensation entering the 2020 Democratic primaries could become a headache for the political establishment – and it isn’t the 77-year old independent senator from Vermont.
Mike Gravel (D-Alaska) is a former senator who is even older than Bernie Sanders and more vehemently critical of US foreign policy, imperialism and the surveillance state. The 88-year-old, who served in the Senate from 1969 to 1981, openly admits he threw his hat in the ring for the sole purpose of qualifying for the debates, in order to ensure that certain issues are not neglected.
Despite being an octogenarian, Gravel is still up to his unorthodox ways, recruiting two 17-year old self-proclaimed lefties as his campaign managers. After announcing his candidacy, a fundraiser was launched to help the ex-lawmaker meet the requirements of 65,000 donors for debate eligibility.
As a senator, Gravel gained national recognition for his efforts to end the draft during the Vietnam War and entering The Pentagon Papers released by whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg into the public record.
Gravel previously ran for president in 2008. In 1972, he also unsuccessfully campaigned to be the running mate of George McGovern, the post that ultimately went to Sargent Shriver.
Gravel was briefly a member of the Libertarian Party, after becoming increasingly disillusioned with the Democratic Party’s pro-war positions after his 2008 bid. His candidacy did gain notoriety for his unusual debate appearances and ornery sense of humor. When debating the Iraq War, Gravel turned to the other candidates on stage and exclaimed “some of these people frighten me!”
He went on to blast then-candidate Joe Biden (another 2020 contender) as “having a certain arrogance. You want to tell the Iraqis how to run their country. I gotta tell you, we should just plain get out!”
Gravel’s feeling about Biden don’t appear to have changed.
His devoted online following from 2008 seems to have reappeared as a perfect fit for today’s political climate, in which social media plays an increasingly vital role in political campaigns. His anti-war positions are resonating with young left-wing voters unhappy about the current lineup of 2020 candidates.
Mainstream media has been quick to lampoon Gravel and scare-monger voters about his controversial views on the September 11th terrorist attacks possibly being an inside job.
It does appear that the elderly ex-senator is serious about planning to drop out of the race after the debates, once he has made sure the Democrats discuss the issue of American interventionism abroad.
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